Prediction of carbon emissions and analysis of emission reduction strategies during operation stage of residences in Nanjing

The city of Nanjing, located in the Yangtze River Delta region, experiences cold winters and hot summers. In recent years, the operation stage of residences in Nanjing has witnessed a gradual increase in carbon emissions, making it a significant contributor to overall building carbon emissions. Understanding the characteristics and patterns of carbon emissions during this stage is crucial for achieving carbon peaking goals in Nanjing. To address this issue, this study establishes the LEAP-Nanjing residential operation energy consumption model. The model analyses the energy consumption structure and identifies key emission terminals during the operation stage of residences in Nanjing. It reveals that electricity is the primary energy source during this stage, with heating and cooling equipment, as well as cooking and hot water production, being the major carbon emission terminals. This study sets up scenarios to explore potential solutions for reducing carbon emissions. These scenarios include the implementation of high-efficiency heating and cooling equipment, grid-side adjustments, building photovoltaics, and energy saving cooking hot water technologies. The carbon emission characteristics of residences in Nanjing from 2020 to 2035 are then analysed. The results indicate that, by promoting high-efficiency heating and cooling equipment and implementing building photovoltaics, carbon emissions during the operation stage of residences in Nanjing can be effectively reduced. Additionally, grid-side adjustments and the adoption of energy saving cooking hot water technology can further contribute to achieving the carbon emission peak. The study predicts that carbon emissions during the operation stage of residences in Nanjing will reach a peak of 7.991 million tons in 2028.